Goldman Sachs S&P 500 Forecast June 2026: 5600 Target Analysis

Quick Answer

Goldman Sachs maintains its 12-month S&P 500 price target of 5,600, implying approximately 8% upside from June 2026 levels. Chief US equity strategist David Kostin cites 9% EPS growth, AI infrastructure spending, and eventual Fed easing as the three primary drivers. The firm recommends overweighting technology, healthcare, and energy while underweighting consumer discretionary and commercial real estate.

Goldman Sachs Equity Strategy

The 5,600 target is based on 2026 full-year EPS of $262 for the S&P 500, applying a 21.4x forward P/E multiple consistent with a soft-landing scenario. Goldman's base case assumes one 25bp Fed rate cut in December 2026, which they model as a modest positive for equity multiples. BlackRock's US equity team holds a similar constructive view with a 5,500 target.

Risk Scenarios

Goldman's bull case target is 6,200 (Fed cuts more than expected, AI productivity materialises faster). Bear case is 4,600 (Fed keeps rates higher through 2027, recession risk). Morgan Stanley holds the most bearish major bank view at 4,500 for year-end, citing stretched valuations and credit cycle risks. JPMorgan Chase equity strategy is at 5,200 — below consensus.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Goldman Sachs S&P 500 target for 2026?

Goldman Sachs' 12-month S&P 500 target is 5,600. This is based on 9% EPS growth to $262 per share and a 21.4x forward P/E. The key assumptions are one Fed rate cut in December 2026, continued AI-driven tech sector outperformance, and no US recession. Goldman recommends overweighting technology and healthcare.

How does Goldman Sachs compare to other banks on the S&P 500?

Goldman (5,600) and BlackRock (5,500) are the most bullish major institutional views. JPMorgan Chase (5,200) is near consensus. Morgan Stanley (4,500) is the most bearish, citing valuation and credit concerns. The range of major bank 12-month targets spans from 4,500 to 6,200.